Sports Betting - Common False Assumptions

Sports Betting – Common False Assumptions

These are common false assumptions in sports betting.

Key Points

– Public bettors make too many false assumptions.

– Sports betting is hard enough and assuming makes it even tougher.

Losing sports bettors share some of the same traits. Of course, they lose more bets than they win. One of the big reasons why is that they make too many false assumptions.

Sports betting is about analyzing the facts and deciding which facts are important and which ones are not.

Even when your facts are solidly established and confirmed, it is still difficult to win bets. Bettors that try to make decisions on assumptions rather than facts often get into trouble.

Even if you only bet on a small percentage of your assumptions, you are setting yourself up for failure. Don’t fail because you don’t have a top quality sportsbook either. Too many assumptions are not founded upon truth. That’s the problem for the average bettor. Here’s a look at five of the most common false assumptions in sports betting.

The Value of a Player

Team Strength in Sports BettingPutting too much value on a big-name player is a typical mistake by public bettors. Big-name athletes are adored by the general betting public. These bettors believe these players have a significant influence on their teams and the sports they play.

This is true, but public bettors put too much emphasis on this influence. They believe a star player can win games almost entirely on their own. When a player like this is hurt, they believe the team is doomed.

These beliefs are frequently reflected in changes to betting odds. This is especially true if the person in question plays a crucial position like quarterback in football or point guard in basketball. The impact of players or their absence can actually be overestimated, which happens far too often. Be sure to take a thorough look at the impact of any player or injury before making any broad judgments about that player.

Also be sure to have an online betting portal where you can go to check odds, lines, and more. Make sure to bookmark the site for future use.

Team Strength in Sports Betting

Certain teams are consistently thought to be strong. There are teams that are thought to be consistently weak. For instance, in MLB, the Pirates are thought to be bad year after year. On the other end, bettors will view the Yankees and Dodgers in a positive light.

There are times when the Pirates outperform expectations, at least from a betting standpoint. There are also times when betting on the Yankees or Dodgers leads to a long string of losses. That’s why bettors should consider betting against the public at times.

Most bettors will believe the Dodgers will beat the Pirates upon first glance. The lazy sports bettor will wager on Los Angeles without digging deeper. That’s a big mistake and a common assumption that the average bettor makes.

Too Much Ego

Too many times, bettors think they are better than they are. They have too much of an ego believing they are as good as a professional sports bettor. They will deviate from their sports betting money management strategies and bet beyond their means.

Losing bettors will keep betting on the same kind of wager because they believe they will win. They believe they have an edge that really isn’t there. As a result, they lose more often.

You can’t just assume that you know everything and that you are the best sports bettor ever. Do the work, find value, and place bets that have a chance of winning and adding to your bankroll. Anything else is a mistake.

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Overvaluing Home Field Advantage in Sports Betting

Home field or home court advantage can be a thing. There are teams that will play better at home in front of their own fans. There are teams that play better when their home routine is uninterrupted.

The average bettor just puts too much emphasis on the home team. Sportsbooks know this and will bake that into their odds. For example, when betting the NBA playoffs, bettors make this mistake.

Take an NBA team like the Lakers as a 3.5-point favorite at home. Sportsbooks know that the public loves big-name teams like the Lakers. Books also know that the public loves home teams. Instead of LA -3.5, sportsbooks will make the Lakers a 5.5-point favorite and the public will still bet on them.

This is also a huge mistake. Just because a team is playing at home doesn’t mean they are going to play better. It doesn’t mean they are going to win or cover a point spread. Do the homework and handicap a game. Where the game is played is just a small piece of the puzzle. Don’t overvalue it.


Too Much Emphasis on Matchups

Looking at matchups when handicapping a game is a very important part of the betting process. Too often though, sweeping assumptions are made regarding these matchups with little regard for anything else.

For example, take an NBA game with a strong defensive team against an average team on offense. The assumption is that the defensive team will dominate the opponent because of the opponent’s lackluster offense.

Bettors might fail to recognize that the mediocre offense is a result of one of the NBA’s slowest paces. A bettor might want to look at how this team fared against similar defensive teams. Bettors might also want to learn how to spot undervalued NBA teams.

Basing a sports betting decision on one simple assumption is a recipe for disaster. Forming assumptions about matchups can cause you to move completely against the direction you ought to be moving.

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