NFL Week 4 By the Numbers

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NFL Week 4 By the NumbersRemember the numbers 2, 4, and 87. They all played a role in Week 4 of the NFL season. 

It was a week that brought us two Monday Night Games. One of those games featured a team that turned the ball over four times (bet you can guess what happened). And, yet another game featured a total of 87 points well beyond the Total line of 56.5.

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Here’s a look at NFL Week 4 by the numbers.

Monday Night

The coronavirus postponed the Pittsburgh-Tennessee game and wound up moving the Kansas City-New England game to Monday night. Patriots QB Cam Newton tested positive for the virus and veteran Brian Hoyer got the start.

It didn’t go so well. Hoyer would go to the bench in favor of Jarrett Stidham. The pair would combine for three interceptions and Hoyer lost a fumble. There’s your four.

The four turnovers were the most by an NFL team in Week 4 and the result, of course, was a loss. It was also an ATS loss for the Patriots who were 11.5-point underdogs.

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What’s Wrong with Dallas?

Did you forget about 87 yet? That would be the total number of points scored in the Cowboys 49-38 loss to the Cleveland Browns.

How could Dallas lose to Cleveland? That’s easy. Turnovers.

The Cowboys lost two fumbles and QB Dak Prescott, who threw for 502 yards, tossed an interception. It’s becoming a thing for Dallas, now 1-3.

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Dallas has scored on almost half (18) of its drives over the past three games. They have also killed 13 drives with a fumble (6), interception (3), a turnover on downs (3), or a safety (1). 

Teams cannot win games in the NFL doing this and bettors can’t trust teams that make so many mistakes. Dallas is 0-4 ATS.

Home Field Disadvantage

As many teams play at home in an empty stadium because of the coronavirus, the whole home field advantage thing has come into question. Bettors are not so sure about it and either are top online sportsbooks. They would be right to disagree.

For the second straight week, NFL teams playing on the road fared better than those playing at home. In Week 3, the home team was 6-9-1 straight up. In Week 4, the record was 6-9. 

Even more interesting was the home team’s record against the spread. The Week 3 record ATS was just 7-9, but Week 4 was even worse. Heading into Monday night, home teams were a combined 3-10 ATS. Kansas City and Green Bay covered at home to make the final tally 5-10 ATS for the home teams.

That means overall this season home teams are 29-34 ATS (46%) at home. Surprisingly, that is better than last year when home teams covered just 35.7 percent of the time. And they had fans. 

Back the Over

The NFL is on a point-scoring tear. If it holds up, 2020 will be the highest scoring season ever … by a lot. 

Currently, NFL teams are scoring 51.4 points per game. Only three games in Week 4 had a total of over 45. Maybe it’s time to consider starting to buy picks.

So far this season, the Over is 36-26-1 (57.9%). Over the past five seasons, the Over has hit in about 51 percent of games through the first four weeks.

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