Borussia Dortmund vs. Hoffenheim Preview

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Created on Wednesday, 24 June 2020

Borussia Dortmund vs. Hoffenheim PreviewThe Bundesliga ends next week! The games will be played behind closed doors because of the COVID-19 pandemic and we will have an intriguing contest on Saturday, when Borussia Dortmund hosts Hoffenheim.

Borussia Dortmund is second in the Bundesliga standings with 69 points in 33 games while Hoffenheim is seventh with 49 points in 33 games. Borussia Dortmund is off a 2-0 road win against RB Leipzig on Saturday while Hoffenheim beat Union Berlin 4-0 at home, also last Saturday.

Let's take a closer look at where the value is in this matchup.

Betting Odds By Scoresandstats.com

Team to Win (Regular Time)

Borussia Dortmund: -133

Hoffenheim: +331

Draw: +321

 

Spread

Borussia Dortmund: -¾ (-108)

Hoffenheim: +¾ (-105)

 

Total

Over 3.5 (-100)

Under 3.5 (-116)

 

Key Points to Consider

Last 6:

Borussia Dortmund, coming off a 2-0 road win against RB Leipzig, have four wins, two losses and zero draws in their last six overall. Hoffenheim, coming off a 4-0 home win against Union Berlin, have four wins, one loss and one draw in their last six overall.

Momentum: Borussia Dortmund has been on an upward trend -- winning four of their last five games in the Bundesliga.

Head-to-Head: These two sides last met in Bundesliga action on December 20, 2019 and Hoffenheim won 2-1.

Projected Leaders

Simulations I have run project Jadon Sancho, Moanes Dabour, Raphaël Guerreiro, Thorgan Hazard and Julian Brandt as the players most likely to score (four of these five players are from Borussia Dortmund).

 

There is a 20.1 percent chance of a draw according to A1pph.com per head shop. In simulations where the game is not a draw, Borussia Dortmund, at 68.4 percent, are heavy favorites to beat Hoffenheim, who have an 11.5 percent chance to win on the road.

 

The leading scorer for Borussia Dortmund is Jadon Sancho with a 49 percent chance of getting one or more goals. When he has at least one goal Borussia Dortmund has an 82 percent chance to win.

 

Hoffenheim needs a victory to put pressure on Wolfsburg for a direct Europa League spot next season while Borussia Dortmund wants to end the season on a high note. I can see this being a low-scoring contest, with both teams coming out focused on defense.

 

Soccer Pick By Gameadvisers.com: Under 3.5 (-116)

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